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Projections by Demographic Group

  1. Beneficiary
    Race/Ethnicity
  2. Lifetime
    Low Earners
  3.  Oldest 
    Old
  4. Sporadic Low
    Earners
  5. Taxpayer
    Race/Ethnicity

Sporadic Low Earners in 2050

Methodology »
Released: May 2024
Next expected update: 2028

DEFINITION: In contrast to a lifetime low earner, a sporadic low earner is a Social Security beneficiary aged 60 or older who:

  • is fully insured by age 61;
  • has at least 30 years of non-covered earnings or 30 years of covered earnings at less than half the average wage;
  • has more than 5 years with zero earnings; and
  • was never disabled.

In 2050, we project that:

  • Seven percent (5.7 million) of all beneficiaries aged 60 or older will be sporadic low earners.
  • Thirty-five percent (2.2 million) of sporadic low earners will have earnings from non-covered work.
  • Of all sporadic low earners, more than half (3.2 million) will be native born.
  • Almost all immigrant sporadic low earners will arrive in the U.S. before age 50.
  • The poverty rate will be much higher for sporadic low earners compared to all beneficiaries aged 60 or older.
  • The median benefit for sporadic low earners will be 44 percent lower for women and 59 percent lower for men compared to all beneficiaries aged 60 or older.
Chart. Title: Population Characteristics. Pie chart series with tabular version below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for chart: Population Characteristics
Characteristic Percent
Sporadic low earners as a percentage of all beneficiaries aged 60 or older 7
Percentage of sporadic low earners with non-covered earnings 35
Chart. Title: Poverty Rates: Percentage below 100 percent of poverty. Bar chart with tabular version below.
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Table equivalent for chart: Poverty Rates (percentage below 100 percent of poverty)
Benefit type Sporadic low earners Beneficiaries aged 60 or older
Scheduled benefits 23.0 4.6
Payable benefits 30.7 8.7
Chart. Title: Immigrant Status. Pie chart with tabular version below.
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Table equivalent for chart: Immigrant Status
Status Percentage of sporadic low earners
Native born 56.4
Early-arriving immigrants (under age 50) 43.3
Late-arriving immigrants (aged 50 or older) 0.4
Chart. Title: Median Benefit by Sex: In 2024 dollars. Bar chart with tabular version below.
Show as table
Table equivalent for chart: Median Benefit by Sex (in 2024 dollars)
Benefit type and sex Sporadic low earners Beneficiaries aged 60 or older
Scheduled benefits  
Women 1,144 2,036
Men 1,001 2,419
Payable benefits  
Women 882 1,570
Men 772 1,865

SOURCE: Modeling Income in the Near Term, Version 8 (MINT8) microsimulation model using 2023 Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.